Nba 2009/2010

[Gathz]

e allora phoenix ha qualche chance in piu... sta a loro ma in post season non han mai combinato nulla...

[Boroming]

hollinger di espn la vede cosi

(spoiler per le dimensioni)

Spoiler

West First Round


(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City
Season series: 3-1 Lakers.
Odds say: Lakers 56.4%; Thunder 43.6%

Everyone seems to think L.A. will just turn it on now that the playoffs have started. Count me among the skeptics.

In fact, I think it's going to take all the Lakers can muster to get out of the first round. Andrew Bynum's return will help, but the Lakers have other issues to deal with, from Kobe Bryant's late-season struggles to Jordan Farmar's unheralded injury that could leave L.A. more dependent than ever on the flailing Derek Fisher.

The saving grace for L.A. is that the Thunder aren't clicking right now, either. Kevin Durant is a monster, but Russell Westbrook has been in a funk since mid-March and the Thunder were just 9-8 over their final 17 games. I'm not sure the Lakers will win a game in Oklahoma City, but they'll do just enough to get out of this alive.

Pick: Lakers in seven


(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%

This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.

Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)

Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.

I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.

The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)

In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).

Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.

What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.

As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.

Pick: Spurs in six


(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Portland
Season series: 2-1 Blazers.
Odds say: Suns 64.9%; Blazers 35.1%

The odds and head-to-head matchups say the Blazers have a chance; common sense says otherwise.

Forget the fact Phoenix is the hottest team in the West at the moment and that the Blazers are ill-suited to take advantage of the Suns' biggest weakness (a lack of quality size), because there's also the little matter of Portland's best player being unable to perform.

Brandon Roy wasn't as good this season as he was in 2008-09, but there's still a serious diminution in production when he's off the court. Portland was 8-9 in games he missed in the regular season and had a negative scoring margin in those 17 games. While the rest of the Blazers were good enough at times to hammer Orlando by 15 and even beat the Suns in Phoenix without him, they also were bad enough to lose to Washington and New Orleans.

We'll talk more about the Suns down below, but suffice it to say, I'll be surprised if they're tested in Round 1, buying them more time to get Robin Lopez back into playing shape.

Pick: Suns in five


(4) Denver vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 3-1 Nuggets.
Odds say: Jazz 61.2%; Nuggets 38.8%

If you're wondering about Carlos Boozer, you're worrying about the wrong guy. Paul Millsap can replicate much of what Boozer provides -- it's Andrei Kirilenko's absence that sent Utah sideways over the final three weeks.

The Jazz had the best Power Ranking of any team in the West prior to his calf strain and had won 20 of 24 games in which Kirilenko had played at least 25 minutes. But with him gone, the Jazz went only 11-7 down the stretch and missed out on a division title that the Nuggets had basically laid at Utah's feet.

Obviously, Boozer's availability is a factor, too, especially since Mehmet Okur's Achilles is still bothering him. Nonetheless, I suspect Kirilenko's health will be the deciding factor for Utah's playoff hopes.

Denver, in the meantime, went only 13-8 after losing Kenyon Martin to a knee injury. While Martin played in the final three games, he wasn't that Kenyon Martin and in fact pulled himself out of Sunday's rout at Phoenix at the half because his knee was still bothering him.

The Nuggets have home court, which is important but less crucial than history might indicate. Because of the altitude and the travel, Denver and Utah historically have massive splits between home and road records; this season, the Nuggets had a 15-game differential and the Jazz an 11-game split. But with no back-to-backs, just one-hour flights and only a 1,000-foot elevation difference, it shouldn't be as large a factor here.

The Jazz have a superior scoring margin and the same win-loss record, and Kirilenko is expected back for Game 1, all of which would make me hugely confident in Utah were it not for that 41-0 staring me in the face. Denver had a healthy Martin for all four meetings, though, and I'm suspecting it won't for this faceoff. As a result, I'll spit into the wind of history a second time here.

Pick: Utah in six

East First Round


(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Cavs 97.0%; Bulls 3.0%

Cleveland needs a tuneup to work Shaquille O'Neal back into the mix, and the Cavs will get one with the Bulls. While Chicago rallied to make the playoffs and has proved to be a feisty opponent in the teams' regular-season meetings, I have trouble seeing the Bulls providing much of an obstacle in the postseason. We have more important stuff to talk about, so let's not dwell on this one.

Pick: Cavs in four


(2) Orlando vs. (7) Charlotte
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 91.9%; Bobcats 8.1%

Orlando was the best team in the league in the second half of the season, so it's a little odd that nobody seems to want to talk about it. Over the final quarter of the season, its average scoring margin was a jaw-dropping plus-12.8, and for the whole season, it led the NBA at plus-7.4. Make no mistake: This is a formidable, championship-caliber outfit.

For Charlotte, here's Larry Brown in a nutshell: He took the team to its first playoff appearance, and he might be already lining up his next gig. The Bobcats likely will take one game from Orlando, given Charlotte's phenomenally large home-road splits this season (31 home wins against just 13 on the road, an 18-game differential that was the league's largest this season). However, things will take a turn for the worse for Charlotte when Brown leaves the bench in the second quarter of Game 4 to take the Philadelphia job.

Pick: Magic in five


(3) Atlanta vs. (6) Milwaukee
Season series: 2-1 Atlanta.
Odds say: Hawks 74.8%; Bucks 25.2%

The Bucks have gone 4-2 since losing Andrew Bogut two weeks ago, so they aren't exactly chopped liver without him. Nonetheless, their hopes of pulling a first-round upset probably went out the window when Bogut hit the floor.

Atlanta beat the Bucks in Milwaukee this past weekend in a game that both sides were trying to win, providing a grim omen for the Bucks' playoff hopes. A raucous home crowd (partially of Bogut's creation) should be able to snag a win for them, but I can't see them doing much more against a deep, balanced Hawks squad, especially with the 41-0 rule staring them in the face.

Pick: Hawks in five


(4) Boston vs. (5) Miami
Season series: 3-0 Boston.
Odds say: Celtics 54.2%; Heat 45.8%

We think of the Celtics as contenders and the Heat as pretenders, but they finished only three games apart in the standings. Boston started 23-5 and finished 27-27; Miami was 24-27 at one point but finished 23-8 in its final 31 games. So we have two sides going in opposite directions, and normally that and Dwyane Wade would be enough to get me to side with the Heat.

But this is a bad matchup for Miami. Boston beat the Heat all three times they played, and two of those meetings were in Miami; furthermore, the Celtics were missing Paul Pierce for one of those games and Kevin Garnett for another. The Celtics' defensive approach against the Heat has been interesting, and effective: Wade has run wild on them, but the Heat have yet to produce another 20-point scorer in a game against Boston.

Sum it all up, and I think the Celtics can survive this one ... barely. Much like a year ago in the Chicago-Boston series, it will go down to the wire and probably provide our best first-round series. The 41-0 rule says it would be foolish to pick against the Celtics here, so in the absence of compelling counterarguments, I'll take them by a whisker.

Pick: Celtics in seven

West Second Round


(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 3-1 Los Angeles.
Odds say: Jazz 57.8%; Lakers 42.2%

Uh, somebody want to do me a favor and let me know who's suiting up for this one? Without knowing the participation plans of Bynum and Boozer, this is a difficult series to forecast, but we'll forge ahead anyway.

I mentioned above that the Jazz were going gangbusters before Kirilenko went down, and he should be back in top form by the time this series tips off -- that's a major advantage for Utah. The Jazz were scorching hot before he went out; despite a rocky finish, they landed with a better point differential than the Lakers for the season.

Meanwhile, L.A. isn't exactly roaring into the playoffs, at just 16-12 after the All-Star break. More depressing is the state of Kobe Bryant's game. He's injured pretty much everywhere right now, and as a Blazers source told me after Portland's win Sunday in L.A., "He's just off." Observation seems to support that point of view. Forget missing the clutch free throws; what about Nic Batum blocking his shot flat-footed?

Since the All-Star break, Bryant has lost nearly four points off his per-40-minute scoring average, even with the Lakers' other injuries seemingly increasing the need for his offense. His turnover rate is significantly higher, too, with nearly four miscues a game after the All-Star break.

Here's the most damning evidence that something is wrong with him physically. Bryant shot 85.4 percent from the line through the end of December. But after hurting his finger in mid-December, he's at 77.6 percent, which would shatter his career low for a full season.

That said, the matchups here are really problematic for Utah. L.A. won three of four in the regular season, partly because the Jazz don't have players who can reliably check Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom, and partly because the normally highly efficient Jazz offense had unusual difficulty scoring on L.A. The Jazz could have had a dream matchup if they'd won against Phoenix on Wednesday night; they're a combined 10-1 against the three other teams on that side of the draw. Instead, they have a hard slog against Denver and L.A., teams they beat only twice in eight tries.

All told, both teams have pretty convincing reasons to pick against them. I'll go with the Jazz here, but I can't say I feel real strongly about it.

Pick: Jazz in six


(3) Phoenix vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 2-1 Phoenix.
Odds say: Suns 53.9%; Spurs 46.1%

I believe this series will decide the Western Conference champion and that the karma gods owe one to the Suns. Further, I think they can beat the Spurs on merit. These have been the two best teams in the West since mid-March, but Phoenix has been hotter longer. The Suns are 28-7 in their past 35 games, playing so well that they now boast, "We're going to start Jarron Collins and still beat you."

Additionally, the much ballyhooed loss of Lopez hasn't appeared to have any material effect on their fortunes. Lopez's plus-minus is almost exactly zero -- they get roughly the same outcomes with Channing Frye or Louis Amundson in the middle.

San Antonio is a legitimate threat to win it all, but I worry about the availability of George Hill -- Suns guards Steve Nash and Goran Dragic roasted the Spurs two weeks ago in Hill's absence, and Hill apparently reinjured his ankle Wednesday night. Between the lack of home-court advantage and the frailty of their three stars, I think the tables will finally turn against the Spurs in this matchup.

Pick: Suns in seven

East Second Round


(1) Cleveland vs. (4) Boston
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Cavs 76.7%; Celtics 23.3%

Boston and Cleveland played to a draw in the regular season, but Cleveland won by 20 and 11, the Celtics by four and six. Additionally, the Celtics have been a mess since midseason and are going to be lucky just to get out of the first round, while the Cavs should be fresh and rested after quickly dispatching Chicago.

That said, I don't expect this to be an easy series for Cleveland. Boston is good at uglying the game up, and Rajon Rondo causes a lot of problems for Cleveland defensively since none of its guards can stay in front of him. Additionally, Cleveland still will be getting in sync with its returning players at the start of the series and could drop a game as a result.

Ultimately, Cleveland will win, because it is a much better team and the Celtics look exhausted, but the real value in this series for the Cavs will be working out the kinks before their final exam against Orlando.

Pick: Cavs in five


(2) Orlando vs. (3) Atlanta
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 81.1%; Hawks 18.9%

Orlando is almost the perfect stereotype of a team Atlanta would struggle against. The Magic control the defensive boards and limit the Hawks' second shots. They have a tall post-up center who can play over the top of Al Horford, who is tough and fundamentally sound but only 6-foot-9. And they get fast-break points, taking advantage of Atlanta's lax transition D.

Also, they're really good. The Magic beat Atlanta three times in four meetings; the one loss came at the buzzer, while the wins were by 32, 18 and 17. Ouch. The Hawks are built to match up against pretty much any other opponent in the playoffs, but they're overmatched here and it might not be pretty. Look for the first second-round playoff win of the Mike Woodson era, but nothing beyond it.

Pick: Magic in five

Conference Finals


(3) Phoenix vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Suns 57.1%; Jazz 42.9%

I have the Suns and Jazz reaching the conference finals, but you could pick two teams out of a hat and face nearly the same prospects at being correct. The Playoff Odds tool gives no Western Conference team more than a 21.8 percent chance of reaching the Finals. That 21.8 percent team, surprisingly, is Phoenix, just ahead of San Antonio's 20.4 and Utah's 18.5.

I like the Suns a little better in this faceoff for a couple of reasons. First, the usual questions about Utah's health apply, although a month from now I'm presuming everyone will be in decent shape. Second, the Jazz won't have home-court advantage. I respect them and all, but picking them to win three straight series without home court is a bit much.

But the real reason to pick against Utah is because of Phoenix. Everybody is sleeping on the Suns, but to me they're clearly the team to beat in the West. Amare Stoudemire has played phenomenally well since his near-departure at the trade deadline, Nash's back isn't giving him fits anymore, the bench has been much better than advertised and speedy Leandro Barbosa is back in the mix after missing 38 games.

Contrary to what many have started believing, the Suns still don't defend worth a lick; although their numbers improved over the final two months, they ranked only 19th in defensive efficiency. But they're so good offensively it doesn't matter. Check out how badly they lapped the field in offensive efficiency this season.

After six years of hearing they can't get to the Finals this way, I think they'll get to the Finals this way.

Pick: Suns in six


(1) Cleveland vs. (2) Orlando
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Magic 60.0%; Cavs 40.0%

Welcome to the real NBA Finals. These have been the league's two best teams all season, and the winner of this series will be an overwhelming favorite to claim its first championship.

In 2009, Cleveland breezed in as the top seed before being upset by the Magic in the conference finals, leading to a series of roster overhauls by Cleveland that were made with the express purpose of matching up against Orlando.

It seemed to work: The Cavs won two of the three regular-season meetings that mattered (I'm not including their last meeting), and Shaquille O'Neal was able to contain Dwight Howard enough to limit Orlando's 3-point shooting barrage. The Magic made only 22 of 64 shots from long distance in those three games, and both the quantity and the quality of 3-point attempts were to the Cavs' liking.

My numbers like Orlando because of its dominance down the stretch of the season, but Cleveland was with the Magic step for step in the Power Rankings until Shaq and Anderson Varejao went out. We still haven't seen what the Cavs are capable of with Antawn Jamison, Varejao and O'Neal on the court together, but I suspect the answer is "awesomeness."

Most importantly, the Cavs have the best player in the league. A year ago, James' 38-8-8 series averages weren't enough because Cleveland couldn't stop the Magic at the other end. This time around, he has more help, and I think he gets it done in a seven-game slugfest.

Pick: Cavs in seven

NBA Finals


(1) Cleveland vs. (3) Phoenix
Season series: 2-0 Cleveland.
Odds say: Cavs 55.7%; Suns 44.3%

The most cursed sports city against the most cursed NBA franchise? Can it possibly happen? It says here, yes.

I saw Cleveland play Phoenix in December, when the Cavs led by four touchdowns at halftime and coasted to a 17-point win. Suffice it to say that I expect this series to be a bit closer. The Suns are playing dramatically better than they were in December, when the two teams played both games in their season series.

That said, Phoenix might have a lot of problems in this one. The Suns need Lopez to come back to have the size to deal with Shaq, and they have nobody even remotely qualified to defend against LeBron. Varejao, on the other hand, is perfectly qualified to check Stoudemire, and the Cavs have some size to throw at Nash, too, with defenders like Delonte West and Anthony Parker. Moreover, Cleveland will have home-court advantage, and few crowds are louder than the gatherings at the Q.

I suspect they'll have plenty to cheer as King James leads the the Cavs to their first championship. Of course, you might want to take that prediction with a grain of salt -- I said the same thing a year ago.

Pick: Cavs in six

[Volcent3]

bè la vede strana quest'uomo qua però se fosse ci sarebbe da ridere

[antonybridge]

hollinger di espn la vede cosi
(spoiler per le dimensioni)

Spoiler

West First Round
(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Oklahoma City
Season series: 3-1 Lakers.
Odds say: Lakers 56.4%; Thunder 43.6%
Everyone seems to think L.A. will just turn it on now that the playoffs have started. Count me among the skeptics.
In fact, I think it's going to take all the Lakers can muster to get out of the first round. Andrew Bynum's return will help, but the Lakers have other issues to deal with, from Kobe Bryant's late-season struggles to Jordan Farmar's unheralded injury that could leave L.A. more dependent than ever on the flailing Derek Fisher.
The saving grace for L.A. is that the Thunder aren't clicking right now, either. Kevin Durant is a monster, but Russell Westbrook has been in a funk since mid-March and the Thunder were just 9-8 over their final 17 games. I'm not sure the Lakers will win a game in Oklahoma City, but they'll do just enough to get out of this alive.
Pick: Lakers in seven
(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%
This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.
Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)
Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.
I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.
The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)
In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).
Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.
What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.
As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.
Pick: Spurs in six
(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Portland
Season series: 2-1 Blazers.
Odds say: Suns 64.9%; Blazers 35.1%
The odds and head-to-head matchups say the Blazers have a chance; common sense says otherwise.
Forget the fact Phoenix is the hottest team in the West at the moment and that the Blazers are ill-suited to take advantage of the Suns' biggest weakness (a lack of quality size), because there's also the little matter of Portland's best player being unable to perform.
Brandon Roy wasn't as good this season as he was in 2008-09, but there's still a serious diminution in production when he's off the court. Portland was 8-9 in games he missed in the regular season and had a negative scoring margin in those 17 games. While the rest of the Blazers were good enough at times to hammer Orlando by 15 and even beat the Suns in Phoenix without him, they also were bad enough to lose to Washington and New Orleans.
We'll talk more about the Suns down below, but suffice it to say, I'll be surprised if they're tested in Round 1, buying them more time to get Robin Lopez back into playing shape.
Pick: Suns in five
(4) Denver vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 3-1 Nuggets.
Odds say: Jazz 61.2%; Nuggets 38.8%
If you're wondering about Carlos Boozer, you're worrying about the wrong guy. Paul Millsap can replicate much of what Boozer provides -- it's Andrei Kirilenko's absence that sent Utah sideways over the final three weeks.
The Jazz had the best Power Ranking of any team in the West prior to his calf strain and had won 20 of 24 games in which Kirilenko had played at least 25 minutes. But with him gone, the Jazz went only 11-7 down the stretch and missed out on a division title that the Nuggets had basically laid at Utah's feet.
Obviously, Boozer's availability is a factor, too, especially since Mehmet Okur's Achilles is still bothering him. Nonetheless, I suspect Kirilenko's health will be the deciding factor for Utah's playoff hopes.
Denver, in the meantime, went only 13-8 after losing Kenyon Martin to a knee injury. While Martin played in the final three games, he wasn't that Kenyon Martin and in fact pulled himself out of Sunday's rout at Phoenix at the half because his knee was still bothering him.
The Nuggets have home court, which is important but less crucial than history might indicate. Because of the altitude and the travel, Denver and Utah historically have massive splits between home and road records; this season, the Nuggets had a 15-game differential and the Jazz an 11-game split. But with no back-to-backs, just one-hour flights and only a 1,000-foot elevation difference, it shouldn't be as large a factor here.
The Jazz have a superior scoring margin and the same win-loss record, and Kirilenko is expected back for Game 1, all of which would make me hugely confident in Utah were it not for that 41-0 staring me in the face. Denver had a healthy Martin for all four meetings, though, and I'm suspecting it won't for this faceoff. As a result, I'll spit into the wind of history a second time here.
Pick: Utah in six
East First Round
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Chicago
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Cavs 97.0%; Bulls 3.0%
Cleveland needs a tuneup to work Shaquille O'Neal back into the mix, and the Cavs will get one with the Bulls. While Chicago rallied to make the playoffs and has proved to be a feisty opponent in the teams' regular-season meetings, I have trouble seeing the Bulls providing much of an obstacle in the postseason. We have more important stuff to talk about, so let's not dwell on this one.
Pick: Cavs in four
(2) Orlando vs. (7) Charlotte
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 91.9%; Bobcats 8.1%
Orlando was the best team in the league in the second half of the season, so it's a little odd that nobody seems to want to talk about it. Over the final quarter of the season, its average scoring margin was a jaw-dropping plus-12.8, and for the whole season, it led the NBA at plus-7.4. Make no mistake: This is a formidable, championship-caliber outfit.
For Charlotte, here's Larry Brown in a nutshell: He took the team to its first playoff appearance, and he might be already lining up his next gig. The Bobcats likely will take one game from Orlando, given Charlotte's phenomenally large home-road splits this season (31 home wins against just 13 on the road, an 18-game differential that was the league's largest this season). However, things will take a turn for the worse for Charlotte when Brown leaves the bench in the second quarter of Game 4 to take the Philadelphia job.
Pick: Magic in five
(3) Atlanta vs. (6) Milwaukee
Season series: 2-1 Atlanta.
Odds say: Hawks 74.8%; Bucks 25.2%
The Bucks have gone 4-2 since losing Andrew Bogut two weeks ago, so they aren't exactly chopped liver without him. Nonetheless, their hopes of pulling a first-round upset probably went out the window when Bogut hit the floor.
Atlanta beat the Bucks in Milwaukee this past weekend in a game that both sides were trying to win, providing a grim omen for the Bucks' playoff hopes. A raucous home crowd (partially of Bogut's creation) should be able to snag a win for them, but I can't see them doing much more against a deep, balanced Hawks squad, especially with the 41-0 rule staring them in the face.
Pick: Hawks in five
(4) Boston vs. (5) Miami
Season series: 3-0 Boston.
Odds say: Celtics 54.2%; Heat 45.8%
We think of the Celtics as contenders and the Heat as pretenders, but they finished only three games apart in the standings. Boston started 23-5 and finished 27-27; Miami was 24-27 at one point but finished 23-8 in its final 31 games. So we have two sides going in opposite directions, and normally that and Dwyane Wade would be enough to get me to side with the Heat.
But this is a bad matchup for Miami. Boston beat the Heat all three times they played, and two of those meetings were in Miami; furthermore, the Celtics were missing Paul Pierce for one of those games and Kevin Garnett for another. The Celtics' defensive approach against the Heat has been interesting, and effective: Wade has run wild on them, but the Heat have yet to produce another 20-point scorer in a game against Boston.
Sum it all up, and I think the Celtics can survive this one ... barely. Much like a year ago in the Chicago-Boston series, it will go down to the wire and probably provide our best first-round series. The 41-0 rule says it would be foolish to pick against the Celtics here, so in the absence of compelling counterarguments, I'll take them by a whisker.
Pick: Celtics in seven
West Second Round
(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 3-1 Los Angeles.
Odds say: Jazz 57.8%; Lakers 42.2%
Uh, somebody want to do me a favor and let me know who's suiting up for this one? Without knowing the participation plans of Bynum and Boozer, this is a difficult series to forecast, but we'll forge ahead anyway.
I mentioned above that the Jazz were going gangbusters before Kirilenko went down, and he should be back in top form by the time this series tips off -- that's a major advantage for Utah. The Jazz were scorching hot before he went out; despite a rocky finish, they landed with a better point differential than the Lakers for the season.
Meanwhile, L.A. isn't exactly roaring into the playoffs, at just 16-12 after the All-Star break. More depressing is the state of Kobe Bryant's game. He's injured pretty much everywhere right now, and as a Blazers source told me after Portland's win Sunday in L.A., "He's just off." Observation seems to support that point of view. Forget missing the clutch free throws; what about Nic Batum blocking his shot flat-footed?
Since the All-Star break, Bryant has lost nearly four points off his per-40-minute scoring average, even with the Lakers' other injuries seemingly increasing the need for his offense. His turnover rate is significantly higher, too, with nearly four miscues a game after the All-Star break.
Here's the most damning evidence that something is wrong with him physically. Bryant shot 85.4 percent from the line through the end of December. But after hurting his finger in mid-December, he's at 77.6 percent, which would shatter his career low for a full season.
That said, the matchups here are really problematic for Utah. L.A. won three of four in the regular season, partly because the Jazz don't have players who can reliably check Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom, and partly because the normally highly efficient Jazz offense had unusual difficulty scoring on L.A. The Jazz could have had a dream matchup if they'd won against Phoenix on Wednesday night; they're a combined 10-1 against the three other teams on that side of the draw. Instead, they have a hard slog against Denver and L.A., teams they beat only twice in eight tries.
All told, both teams have pretty convincing reasons to pick against them. I'll go with the Jazz here, but I can't say I feel real strongly about it.
Pick: Jazz in six
(3) Phoenix vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 2-1 Phoenix.
Odds say: Suns 53.9%; Spurs 46.1%
I believe this series will decide the Western Conference champion and that the karma gods owe one to the Suns. Further, I think they can beat the Spurs on merit. These have been the two best teams in the West since mid-March, but Phoenix has been hotter longer. The Suns are 28-7 in their past 35 games, playing so well that they now boast, "We're going to start Jarron Collins and still beat you."
Additionally, the much ballyhooed loss of Lopez hasn't appeared to have any material effect on their fortunes. Lopez's plus-minus is almost exactly zero -- they get roughly the same outcomes with Channing Frye or Louis Amundson in the middle.
San Antonio is a legitimate threat to win it all, but I worry about the availability of George Hill -- Suns guards Steve Nash and Goran Dragic roasted the Spurs two weeks ago in Hill's absence, and Hill apparently reinjured his ankle Wednesday night. Between the lack of home-court advantage and the frailty of their three stars, I think the tables will finally turn against the Spurs in this matchup.
Pick: Suns in seven
East Second Round
(1) Cleveland vs. (4) Boston
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Cavs 76.7%; Celtics 23.3%
Boston and Cleveland played to a draw in the regular season, but Cleveland won by 20 and 11, the Celtics by four and six. Additionally, the Celtics have been a mess since midseason and are going to be lucky just to get out of the first round, while the Cavs should be fresh and rested after quickly dispatching Chicago.
That said, I don't expect this to be an easy series for Cleveland. Boston is good at uglying the game up, and Rajon Rondo causes a lot of problems for Cleveland defensively since none of its guards can stay in front of him. Additionally, Cleveland still will be getting in sync with its returning players at the start of the series and could drop a game as a result.
Ultimately, Cleveland will win, because it is a much better team and the Celtics look exhausted, but the real value in this series for the Cavs will be working out the kinks before their final exam against Orlando.
Pick: Cavs in five
(2) Orlando vs. (3) Atlanta
Season series: 3-1 Orlando.
Odds say: Magic 81.1%; Hawks 18.9%
Orlando is almost the perfect stereotype of a team Atlanta would struggle against. The Magic control the defensive boards and limit the Hawks' second shots. They have a tall post-up center who can play over the top of Al Horford, who is tough and fundamentally sound but only 6-foot-9. And they get fast-break points, taking advantage of Atlanta's lax transition D.
Also, they're really good. The Magic beat Atlanta three times in four meetings; the one loss came at the buzzer, while the wins were by 32, 18 and 17. Ouch. The Hawks are built to match up against pretty much any other opponent in the playoffs, but they're overmatched here and it might not be pretty. Look for the first second-round playoff win of the Mike Woodson era, but nothing beyond it.
Pick: Magic in five
Conference Finals
(3) Phoenix vs. (5) Utah
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Suns 57.1%; Jazz 42.9%
I have the Suns and Jazz reaching the conference finals, but you could pick two teams out of a hat and face nearly the same prospects at being correct. The Playoff Odds tool gives no Western Conference team more than a 21.8 percent chance of reaching the Finals. That 21.8 percent team, surprisingly, is Phoenix, just ahead of San Antonio's 20.4 and Utah's 18.5.
I like the Suns a little better in this faceoff for a couple of reasons. First, the usual questions about Utah's health apply, although a month from now I'm presuming everyone will be in decent shape. Second, the Jazz won't have home-court advantage. I respect them and all, but picking them to win three straight series without home court is a bit much.
But the real reason to pick against Utah is because of Phoenix. Everybody is sleeping on the Suns, but to me they're clearly the team to beat in the West. Amare Stoudemire has played phenomenally well since his near-departure at the trade deadline, Nash's back isn't giving him fits anymore, the bench has been much better than advertised and speedy Leandro Barbosa is back in the mix after missing 38 games.
Contrary to what many have started believing, the Suns still don't defend worth a lick; although their numbers improved over the final two months, they ranked only 19th in defensive efficiency. But they're so good offensively it doesn't matter. Check out how badly they lapped the field in offensive efficiency this season.
After six years of hearing they can't get to the Finals this way, I think they'll get to the Finals this way.
Pick: Suns in six
(1) Cleveland vs. (2) Orlando
Season series: 2-2 split.
Odds say: Magic 60.0%; Cavs 40.0%
Welcome to the real NBA Finals. These have been the league's two best teams all season, and the winner of this series will be an overwhelming favorite to claim its first championship.
In 2009, Cleveland breezed in as the top seed before being upset by the Magic in the conference finals, leading to a series of roster overhauls by Cleveland that were made with the express purpose of matching up against Orlando.
It seemed to work: The Cavs won two of the three regular-season meetings that mattered (I'm not including their last meeting), and Shaquille O'Neal was able to contain Dwight Howard enough to limit Orlando's 3-point shooting barrage. The Magic made only 22 of 64 shots from long distance in those three games, and both the quantity and the quality of 3-point attempts were to the Cavs' liking.
My numbers like Orlando because of its dominance down the stretch of the season, but Cleveland was with the Magic step for step in the Power Rankings until Shaq and Anderson Varejao went out. We still haven't seen what the Cavs are capable of with Antawn Jamison, Varejao and O'Neal on the court together, but I suspect the answer is "awesomeness."
Most importantly, the Cavs have the best player in the league. A year ago, James' 38-8-8 series averages weren't enough because Cleveland couldn't stop the Magic at the other end. This time around, he has more help, and I think he gets it done in a seven-game slugfest.
Pick: Cavs in seven
NBA Finals
(1) Cleveland vs. (3) Phoenix
Season series: 2-0 Cleveland.
Odds say: Cavs 55.7%; Suns 44.3%
The most cursed sports city against the most cursed NBA franchise? Can it possibly happen? It says here, yes.
I saw Cleveland play Phoenix in December, when the Cavs led by four touchdowns at halftime and coasted to a 17-point win. Suffice it to say that I expect this series to be a bit closer. The Suns are playing dramatically better than they were in December, when the two teams played both games in their season series.
That said, Phoenix might have a lot of problems in this one. The Suns need Lopez to come back to have the size to deal with Shaq, and they have nobody even remotely qualified to defend against LeBron. Varejao, on the other hand, is perfectly qualified to check Stoudemire, and the Cavs have some size to throw at Nash, too, with defenders like Delonte West and Anthony Parker. Moreover, Cleveland will have home-court advantage, and few crowds are louder than the gatherings at the Q.
I suspect they'll have plenty to cheer as King James leads the the Cavs to their first championship. Of course, you might want to take that prediction with a grain of salt -- I said the same thing a year ago.
Pick: Cavs in six

è palese che ha visto i miei pronostici e poi mi ha copiato

[Drugnon]

il punto di SA-DAL rimane sempre quello...


... chi difende il Tedesco??



A SA nessuno lo può tenere....

[Incoma]

Secondo me quel pronostico è fuffa.

Lakers in 7 al primo turno e fuori con Utah in 6 partite al secondo è fantascienza.

Staremo a vedere.

[Kat]

Che roba e' il 41-0 di cui parla piu' volte?

[Drugnon]

Che roba e' il 41-0 di cui parla piu' volte?

penso sia la storia che se una squadra ha la serie vincente in stagione regolare (leggasi 3-1 in stagione Dallas-San Antonio) e ha il fattore campo dalla sua è dal 1997 che quella squadra passa il primo turno (41 serie disputate con fattore campo e scontri diretti favorevoli e 41 vittorie)


infatti la serie Dallas - Goldenstate di qualche anno fa non conta, in regular season ci son state 3W di GSW

[Volcent3]

ieri notte tutte vittorie delle squadre casalinghe quindi tutto nella norma...bella prestazione comunque di jennings per i bucks direi e discrete difese cavs e celtics melo playoff career high 42 punti

[Kat]

Ho appena visto Milwaukee-Atlanta, senza manco Bogut i Bucks non hanno possibilita'.
Gli Hawks hanno pasticciato parecchio dalla meta' del terzo quarto fin quasi alla fine della partita, pero' hanno troppe armi in piu'.

Certo se con un quarto intero e 10 punti di vantaggio ti metti a giocare a perdere tempo, magari finisce che perdi anche la partita.
Erano veramente inguardabili, palleggio per 15 secondi, poi pick and roll o isolamento per Johnson e tiro forzato finale.

[Drugnon]

melo playoff career high 42 punti

Senza AK Melo ci fa il culo ;_;


poi si è reinfortunato anche Okur... oddio forse è un bene per utah..

[Kat]

C'e' Lakers-Thunder in diretta su Sportitalia ora.

Artest gira con una capigliatura stile Dennis Rodman

[Kat]

Partita orrenda, attacchi confusionari, forzature e palle perse a profusione.
L'unico che ha illuminato e' stato Westbrook.
Da segnalare la difesa spettacolare di Artest su Durant, cmq han giocato male anche i Lakers. Bryant non sembra a posto.

Pessima pure la regia che si e' persa dei tiri liberi e continuava a fare primi piani invece di far vedere i replay.

[Kalgan]

madonna che attacco penoso i thunder... manco al minibasket -.-

[Volcent3]

nessun commento per la bella gomitata di garnett dell'altra notte ? è stato sospeso una partita comunque